(Image Source: Shutterstock.)
The Thucydides Trap, also referred to as Thucydides's Trap, is a term coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as the international hegemon.[1] It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China.[2] The term is based on a quote by ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides, which posits that the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta had been inevitable because of Spartan fear of the growth of Athenian power.[3][4]
The term was coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison in a 2012 article for the Financial Times.[2] Based on a quote by ancient Athenian historian and military general Thucydides in his text History of the Peloponnesian War positing that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable",[5][6] Allison used the term to describe a tendency towards war when a rising power (exemplified by Athens) challenges the status of a dominant power (exemplified by Sparta). Allison expanded upon the term significantly in his 2017 book Destined for War, which argues that "China and the US are currently on a collision course for war".[7][2]
The term describes the theory that when a great power's position as hegemon is threatened by an emerging power, there is a significant likelihood of war between the two powers.[1][2] Or in coiner Graham Allison's words: Thucydides's Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power...[and] when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.[8] To advance his thesis, Allison led a case study by the Harvard University Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that among 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.[3][9]
The term and arguments surrounding it have had influence in international media, including Chinese state media,[10] and among American and Chinese politicians.[2] A case study of the term by Alan Greeley Misenheimer published by the Institute for National Strategic Studies, the military research arm of the National Defense University, states that it "has received global attention since entering the international relations lexicon".[11] Furthermore, BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus has quipped that Graham Allison's book expanding on the Thucydides trap, Destined For War, "has become required reading for many policymakers, academics and journalists".[12]
The term is primarily used and was coined in relation to a potential military conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China.[2] Xi Jinping, the paramount leader of China, has himself referenced the term, cautioning that "We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap".[13] The term gained further influence in 2018 as a result of a surge in US-Chinese tensions after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on almost half of China's exports to the US, leading to a tit-for-tat series of economic escalations.[2][14] Western scholars have noted that there are a number of pressing issues the two nations are at odds over that increase the likelihood of the two powers falling into the Thucydides trap, including the de facto independence of Taiwan, China's digital policing and its use of cyber espionage, differing policies towards North Korea, China's increased naval presence in the Pacific and its claims over the South China Sea, and human rights in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong.[1][12][14][15] Some also point to the consolidation of power by Xi Jinping, supposedly irreconcilable differences in values, and the trade deficit as further evidence the countries may be slipping into the Thucydides trap.[14][16]